ELECTION LATEST – AT 7:29 P.M. ET:  Big polls normally aren't released on Friday, when the news audience dwindles.  But some trackers and other polls are out, giving us some direction in key races:

In Pennsylvania, Rasmussen has Republican Pat Toomey up four points.  We've gone through quite a scare as Toomey's support seemed to drop dramatically, but the truth may be more complicated.  It depends on how the term "likely voters" is defined.  A Quinnipiac poll yesterday had Toomey up two over Democrat Joe Sestak.  Another poll has the race tied.  We count on GOP enthusiasm to pull this one out, but Obama will be in Philadelphia to get out the traditional Dem vote.

In California, Carly Fiorina can't seem, yet, to pull ahead of Barbara Boxer, the senator we'd like most to defeat.  Rasmussen has Boxer up by two.  California is a very blue state, and Boxer has the support of all those groups who depend on the government, and that especially means the hundreds of thousands of public employees.  Again, Republican enthusiasm may make the difference, but this one is in the air.

RealClearPolitics rates the Senate, as of today, as 44 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 8 toss ups.  Please note that's a loss of two Republicans to the toss up column within the last few days.  The Senate is clearly a hill climb for the GOP.  RCP rates the House at 215 Republicans, 178 Dems and 42 toss ups.  Only 218 are required for a House majority, so the Republicans would have to win three out of 42 toss ups.  I think we can safely say that, unless there's a real political catastrophe, the GOP should take the House.

October 22, 2010